More than half of the UK population will be regularly using tablet computers in 2015, up from a third in 2013, but the growth is set to slow “dramatically” in the coming years according to research firm eMarketer.
The company’s latest predictions for the UK tablet market claim that 32.8 million Brits will be using a tablet at least once a month in 2015, representing 51% of the population – and 64.1% of internet users.
By 2019, eMarketer expects those figures to have risen to 40.2 million people: 59.8% of the population and 73.6% of internet users.
“The country’s tablet market is reaching a point in its maturity curve that signals a slowdown in user growth,” said analyst Bill Fisher. “Such a slowdown in the rate of penetration suggests that most of those who want a tablet likely already have one, with more sales than ever likely to be replacements.”
eMarketer also expects Apple’s iPad to account for 16.7 million of in-use tablets for the UK in 2015, giving it a 51% market share. It predicts that this will fall to 44.9% by 2019 due to continued competition from companies including Samsung and Amazon.
Even so, that’s a shift from the same firm’s prediction in April 2014 that iPad would account for 49% of British tablet users in 2014, falling to 46% in 2015.
eMarketer is far from the only firm predicting a slowdown in the tablet market.Gartner has described global tablet shipments in 2014 – note, a different metric to the active users referred to by eMarketer – as a “collapse” and “alarming”.
Apple chief executive Tim Cook was also asked about a tablet slowdown after his company revealed a 17.7% year-on-year decline in iPad sales in the final quarter of 2014, and pointed to people upgrading tablets less often than they do smartphones as one factor.
“The upgrade cycle is longer. It’s longer than an iPhone, probably between an iPhone and a PC,” Cook told analysts in January. “There is probably some level of cannibalisation that’s going on with the Mac on one side and the Phone on the other.”
